The market sits about 8% above fair value, a touch pricier than last week

Here's the short version: the market is slightly expensive right now. FPI puts the whole thing about 8% above fair value, up from roughly 7% a week ago — so a small step pricier, not a lurch. Think of it as paying a little more than things are really worth. One thing to keep in mind: FPI is a slow, long-term read on value, not a scorecard for any single week's headlines.

As for the week itself, it split in two. Tech was a bright spot, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing to a fresh high, powered by a record in Nvidia and a revival in chipmakers — but much of the rest of the market ended lower, as a five-week bond selloff and oil near $100 a barrel hurt the parts most sensitive to interest rates and the economy. That tug-of-war left the big gauges mixed: for the week the Nasdaq rose a bit while the S&P 500 slipped and the Dow fell more than 1%. The mood flipped on Friday. Major indexes rose as expectations for Fed rate hikes faded after softer-than-forecast jobs data. Hiring came in at just 29,000 new jobs last month, far below the roughly 90,000 economists expected — weak for workers, but enough to convince investors the Fed won't need to push rates higher soon, which is a tailwind for stocks.

The expensive end hasn't budged. FPI pegs technology at about 32% above fair value — meaning the typical tech name trades roughly a third pricier than FPI thinks it's worth. And that's after a month where tech was the only corner of the market climbing: of the eleven sector funds, only one rose in September 2026 — the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund returned 5.08%. Chips did even better. The catch, as one analysis put it, is that about three-quarters of stocks in the index fell this month, with gains in a handful of the biggest names masking weakness in the majority. Basic materials (about 28% over) and industrials (about 22% over) round out the pricey trio.

The bargains are piling up on the other side. Financial services is the standout — FPI has it around 30% below fair value, the cheapest group it tracks. Part of that is this month's pain: financials were the hardest hit sector in September, falling more than 6% as bond yields rose, raising the cost of capital and threatening demand for loans. Utilities (about 15% below fair value) and real estate (about 6% below) also got knocked down, since investors own them for steady dividends, and when a Treasury pays more with no stock risk, those dividends are worth less and shares fall. Healthcare sits just under fair value too. None of this is a green light — but these are the corners worth a spot on your watchlist, where you could set a buy price in the app and wait.

American Airlines was the big swing toward cheap this week. The stock drifted lower — American Airlines stock declined 2.4% in September, trailing United stock and Delta stock — even as the company posted second-quarter revenue of USD 16.73 billion, up 16.30 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. The catch is that the profits behind that revenue are wafer-thin, which keeps analysts cautious. After the move, FPI now sees AAL sitting about 52% below fair value — a stock FPI thinks is worth noticeably more than its price.

Netflix went the other way, becoming pricier against fair value even though the shares had a rough month. Netflix shares are down more than 14% in September, putting them on pace for their worst monthly performance since June. The stock is also down more than 26% for the year, on track for its biggest annual decline since 2022. The worry is slowing growth — co-CEO Ted Sarandos acknowledged that the company's growth has not been fast enough. "Overall, we're not growing as fast as I want us to," Sarandos said — though Deutsche Bank went the other way, upgrading the streaming giant to buy from hold. NFLX now reads about 29% above fair value, meaning FPI thinks the price has gotten ahead of what the business is worth. Zoom out and value is quietly appearing elsewhere: 45 stocks slipped into undervalued territory this week, worth a scan of your watchlist.

Investors added 30 new buy prices this week, bringing the total to 611 across 188 tickers. The big names drew the crowd: Amazon picked up 4, while Nvidia and Google each gained 3, and Apple and Meta added a couple more. No new community buy zones opened up this week, so the action was about fine-tuning rather than fresh territory.

A few median buy prices shifted enough to notice. Tesla's community target slipped about 5.5% lower (14 investors) and Realty Income's dropped around 4.4% (13 investors) — people getting pickier about their entry. Palantir went the other way, its median target climbing about 5.4% (18 investors), a sign folks are willing to pay a bit more. Google and AMD barely budged. You can check the actual zones in the app.

Next week is quieter, but a few things could nudge fair values. The big one lands Wednesday, when the Fed releases the notes from its September meeting. The main event will be the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting on Wednesday. Why care? Those notes hint at where interest rates are headed, and rates shape what every stock is worth over time. Earnings season also cracks open: PepsiCo reports October 8, and Delta Air Lines reports October 9. Fresh earnings feed straight into FPI's models daily, so a surprise from a household name can shift its fair value the next morning — handy if either sits on your watchlist. Earlier in the week, October 5 brings the September ISM Services report, a read on the biggest slice of the economy. And to close things out, October 9 delivers the preliminary University of Michigan October consumer sentiment, which tells you how everyday shoppers are feeling about spending. Nothing here forces a move — just a handful of clues worth watching.