FPI MARKET INDEX
The market is slightly overvalued.
The FPI Market Index is a unique daily benchmark of global market valuation — the only index that combines DCF analysis, relative valuation, and analyst consensus into a single number. One clear signal of whether markets are trading above, below, or near their fair value.
FPI MARKET INDEX · Apr 16
Updated daily after market close
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
INDEX TREND
The market is trading near fair value with a 7.9% median difference. Over the past 8 days, the average was 8.0% slightly overvalued.
8 days of data · Median downside/upside across 300 stocks. Updated daily after market close. Fair price is a model-based estimate combining DCF (50%), relative valuation (30%), and analyst consensus (20%).
BY SECTOR
EXPLORE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
The FPI Market Index shows the big picture. To analyze individual stocks, use our free calculators or browse the full stock list.
METHODOLOGY
The FPI Market Index calculates the median downside/upside across 300 stocks tracked daily. Each stock's fair price is computed using a blended model: DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation using P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). The index uses median rather than mean to reduce the impact of outliers. Read more about our valuation model.
FPI Market Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The index reflects model-based estimates updated daily after market close. Sector breakdowns require a minimum of 3 stocks per group.
FAQ
Is the stock market overvalued right now?+
Based on the FPI Market Index, the median stock has 7.9% downside to its fair value, suggesting the market is currently slightly overvalued. This is based on 300 stocks analyzed daily using DCF analysis, relative valuation, and analyst consensus. The index has been trending downward, suggesting the market is moving closer to fair value.
What is the FPI Market Index?+
The FPI Market Index is a daily measure of overall stock market valuation. It calculates the median downside or upside across 300 major stocks by comparing each stock's market price to its model-derived fair value. A positive value indicates the typical stock trades above fair value (downside risk), while a negative value indicates it trades below (upside potential).
How is the FPI Market Index calculated?+
For each of the 300 stocks tracked, we calculate fair price using a blended model: DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against sector peers using P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus price targets (20%). The index then takes the median of all individual downside/upside percentages. We use median instead of mean to reduce the impact of extreme outliers.
Which sector is the most overvalued?+
Currently, Industrials is the most overvalued sector with a median of 22.9% downside. Sector medians are calculated the same way as the overall index — by taking the median downside/upside of all stocks within each sector.
Which sector is the most undervalued?+
Utilities is currently the most undervalued sector with a median of 15.3% upside. This suggests stocks in the Utilities sector are trading at the largest discount to their calculated fair values compared to other sectors.
How often is the FPI Market Index updated?+
The index is updated daily after market close. Fair prices for all tracked stocks are recalculated each day, and the index reflects the most recent available data.
What does downside and upside mean?+
Downside means the percentage the market price would need to fall to reach fair value — indicating the stock is trading above its estimated worth. Upside means the percentage the market price could rise to reach fair value — indicating a potential value opportunity. The FPI Market Index uses five zones: overvalued (above 10% downside), slightly overvalued (5-10% downside), near fair value (within 5%), slightly undervalued (5-10% upside), and undervalued (above 10% upside).
Can I use the FPI Market Index for investment decisions?+
The FPI Market Index is an informational tool, not investment advice. It provides a data-driven perspective on overall market valuation, but investment decisions should consider many additional factors including your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Always do your own research.
Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.