Union Pacific
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$266.53
FAIR PRICE
$189.85
MARGIN
$76.68
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FPI RATING
Strong profitability and high-quality fundamentals, but expensive valuation relative to fundamentals.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$151.88
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
43.0%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $266.53, UNP trades 43.0% above the conservative entry level of $151.88. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $189.85 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate UNP's fair price
Union Pacific's fair price of $189.85 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $266.53, UNP trades 28.8% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting UNP's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing UNP's valuation multiples against Industrials peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for UNP, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate UNP's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of UNP?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Union Pacific is $189.85. At the current market price of $266.53, UNP trades 28.8% above its calculated fair value.
Is UNP overvalued or undervalued?+
Union Pacific is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $266.53, which is 28.8% above the fair price of $189.85. The P/E ratio of 21.8x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for UNP?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $189.85, the conservative entry level for UNP is $151.88. At the current market price of $266.53, the stock trades 43.0% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is UNP's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for UNP daily after market close. The current fair price of $189.85 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect UNP's fair price calculation?+
UNP's fair price of $189.85 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 21.8x, ROE of 42.4%, and dividend yield of 2.07%.
Is UNP a good buy right now?+
At $266.53, UNP trades 28.8% above our fair value estimate of $189.85. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 42.4% (exceptional). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does UNP pay dividends?+
UNP has a dividend yield of 2.07%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.