Tesla
TSLA is overvalued
NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical
FAIR PRICE
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
Uncertainty: Very high ±50% · band $142.16 – $426.50
$403.30
MARKET PRICE
$284.33
FAIR PRICE
$118.97
MARGIN
FAIR VALUE REPORT · OCT 22, 2026
Tesla's suppliers paid for its free cash flow this quarter. What pays for the $386 share price?
A 3-cent beat, $1.5 billion of free cash flow and a SpaceX merger committee carried Tesla to $386. Strip out $5.2 billion of unpaid bills and customer prepayments and the cash vanishes - and the model sits $125 lower.
READ THE REPORT →HIGHEST WALL STREET TARGET
- 01Morgan Stanley's $840 target from 12 September 2026 needs the 2027 story to land: unsupervised FSD activation in Q2 2027 and Optimus deliveries by end-2027.
- 02Automotive margin excluding credits recovered to 18.1% from 16.3% in the June 2026 quarter, and a December print above 19.2% would show pricing power without credit income.
- 03A balance sheet with $45.4 billion of cash, debt/equity of 0.11x and $30 billion of facilities signed 29 September 2026 funds the robotaxi build without equity issuance.
BOTTOM OF THE FPI FAIR VALUE BAND
- 01Accounts payable rose $3.99 billion and deferred revenue $1.26 billion, so stripping both turns the reported $1.53 billion free cash flow into roughly -$3.7 billion.
- 02GAAP operating income fell 56% to $718 million and margin to 2.6%, with ROIC of 2.8% and net margin of 3.7% leaving the DCF half of the model little to discount.
- 03At 380.7x earnings and 120.4x EV/EBITDA against industry medians of 13.2x and 9.2x, a reset toward peer multiples on 5.2% three-year revenue growth is severe.
FPI FAIR VALUE $261.30 · FPI fair value of $261.30 sits far nearer the $130.65 bear anchor than the $840.00 bull anchor, because trailing free cash flow of $3.30 billion yields just 0.40% on a $1.45 trillion market value.
COMMUNITY BUY ZONE
ZONE LIVE · APP ONLY
Where does the market buy TSLA?
15 investors have set their maximum buying price for TSLA. The community median and buy zone are live — in the Fair Price Index app.
COMMUNITY MEDIAN
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BUYERS AT TODAY'S PRICE
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METRICS
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FPI RATING
Low debt levels, but limited growth momentum and weak profitability margins.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$227.46
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
43.6%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $403.30, TSLA trades 43.6% above the conservative entry level of $227.46. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $284.33 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
SYNCING FEED ▌
P/E RATIO HISTORY
SYNCING FEED ▌
METHODOLOGY
How we calculate TSLA's fair price
Tesla's fair price of $284.33 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $403.30, TSLA trades 29.5% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting TSLA's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing TSLA's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for TSLA, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate TSLA's fair value with your own inputs.
TSLA DCF Calculator
Pre-filled with TSLA's real free cash flow and share count — set your own growth and discount rate to calculate intrinsic value.
Graham Number
Enter TSLA's EPS and book value to see the maximum price Benjamin Graham would pay for this stock.
P/E Ratio Calculator
Check how much investors pay per dollar of TSLA's earnings and compare it against sector benchmarks.
EV/EBITDA Calculator
Compare TSLA against peers on a debt-adjusted basis using enterprise value and EBITDA.
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What is the fair price of TSLA?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Tesla is $284.33. At the current market price of $403.30, TSLA trades 29.5% above its calculated fair value.
Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued?+
Tesla is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $403.30, which is 29.5% above the fair price of $284.33. The P/E ratio of 493.2x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for TSLA?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $284.33, the conservative entry level for TSLA is $227.46. At the current market price of $403.30, the stock trades 43.6% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is TSLA's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for TSLA daily after market close. The current fair price of $284.33 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect TSLA's fair price calculation?+
TSLA's fair price of $284.33 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 493.2x, ROE of 3.8%.
Is TSLA a good buy right now?+
At $403.30, TSLA trades 29.5% above our fair value estimate of $284.33. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 3.8% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does TSLA pay dividends?+
TSLA does not currently pay a dividend.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
