Toll Brothers, Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$141.75
FAIR PRICE
$123.42
MARGIN
$18.33
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FPI RATING
Consistent growth trajectory and attractive valuation, but volatile earnings pattern and below-average fundamental quality.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$98.74
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
30.3%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $141.75, TOL trades 30.3% above the conservative entry level of $98.74. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $123.42 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate TOL's fair price
Toll Brothers, Inc.'s fair price of $123.42 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $141.75, TOL trades 12.9% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting TOL's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing TOL's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for TOL, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate TOL's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of TOL?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Toll Brothers, Inc. is $123.42. At the current market price of $141.75, TOL trades 12.9% above its calculated fair value.
Is TOL overvalued or undervalued?+
Toll Brothers, Inc. is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $141.75, which is 12.9% above the fair price of $123.42. The P/E ratio of 10.3x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for TOL?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $123.42, the conservative entry level for TOL is $98.74. At the current market price of $141.75, the stock trades 30.3% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is TOL's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for TOL daily after market close. The current fair price of $123.42 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect TOL's fair price calculation?+
TOL's fair price of $123.42 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 10.3x, ROE of 16.9%, and dividend yield of 0.70%.
Is TOL a good buy right now?+
At $141.75, TOL trades 12.9% above our fair value estimate of $123.42. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 16.9% (strong). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does TOL pay dividends?+
TOL has a dividend yield of 0.70%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.