Origin Energy Limited
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$8.61
FAIR PRICE
$10.77
MARGIN
$2.16
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FPI RATING
High-quality fundamentals, but weak profitability margins.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$8.62
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
0.1%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $8.61, OGFGF trades 0.1% below the conservative entry level of $8.62. The stock is currently priced below the 20% margin of safety threshold, indicating a potential value opportunity based on the model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate OGFGF's fair price
Origin Energy Limited's fair price of $10.77 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $8.61, OGFGF trades 25.1% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting OGFGF's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing OGFGF's valuation multiples against Energy peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for OGFGF, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate OGFGF's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of OGFGF?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Origin Energy Limited is $10.77. At the current market price of $8.61, OGFGF trades 25.1% below its calculated fair value.
Is OGFGF overvalued or undervalued?+
Origin Energy Limited is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $8.61, which is 25.1% below the fair price of $10.77. The P/E ratio of 7.2x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for OGFGF?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $10.77, the conservative entry level for OGFGF is $8.62. At the current market price of $8.61, the stock trades 0.1% below this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is OGFGF's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for OGFGF daily after market close. The current fair price of $10.77 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect OGFGF's fair price calculation?+
OGFGF's fair price of $10.77 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Energy peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 7.2x, ROE of 29.5%, and dividend yield of 7.19%.
Is OGFGF a good buy right now?+
At $8.61, OGFGF trades 25.1% below our fair value estimate of $10.77. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at 29.5% (exceptional). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does OGFGF pay dividends?+
OGFGF has a dividend yield of 7.19%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.