Murphy USA Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$558.78
FAIR PRICE
$497.40
MARGIN
$61.38
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FPI RATING
High-quality fundamentals, but expensive valuation relative to fundamentals and elevated debt levels.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$397.92
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
28.8%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $558.78, MUSA trades 28.8% above the conservative entry level of $397.92. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $497.40 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate MUSA's fair price
Murphy USA Inc.'s fair price of $497.40 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $558.78, MUSA trades 11.0% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting MUSA's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing MUSA's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for MUSA, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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What is the fair price of MUSA?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Murphy USA Inc. is $497.40. At the current market price of $558.78, MUSA trades 11.0% above its calculated fair value.
Is MUSA overvalued or undervalued?+
Murphy USA Inc. is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $558.78, which is 11.0% above the fair price of $497.40. The P/E ratio of 21.2x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for MUSA?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $497.40, the conservative entry level for MUSA is $397.92. At the current market price of $558.78, the stock trades 28.8% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is MUSA's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for MUSA daily after market close. The current fair price of $497.40 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect MUSA's fair price calculation?+
MUSA's fair price of $497.40 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 21.2x, ROE of 74.3%, and dividend yield of 0.45%.
Is MUSA a good buy right now?+
At $558.78, MUSA trades 11.0% above our fair value estimate of $497.40. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 74.3% (exceptional). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does MUSA pay dividends?+
MUSA has a dividend yield of 0.45%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.