ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$16.43
FAIR PRICE
$21.33
MARGIN
$4.90
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FPI RATING
Consistent growth trajectory and attractive valuation, but volatile earnings pattern and below-average fundamental quality.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$17.06
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
3.9%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $16.43, ARR trades 3.9% below the conservative entry level of $17.06. The stock is currently priced below the 20% margin of safety threshold, indicating a potential value opportunity based on the model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ARR's fair price
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.'s fair price of $21.33 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Real Estate peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $16.43, ARR trades 29.8% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ARR's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ARR's valuation multiples against Real Estate peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ARR, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate ARR's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of ARR?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Real Estate peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is $21.33. At the current market price of $16.43, ARR trades 29.8% below its calculated fair value.
Is ARR overvalued or undervalued?+
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $16.43, which is 29.8% below the fair price of $21.33. The P/E ratio of 44.7x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for ARR?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $21.33, the conservative entry level for ARR is $17.06. At the current market price of $16.43, the stock trades 3.9% below this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ARR's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ARR daily after market close. The current fair price of $21.33 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ARR's fair price calculation?+
ARR's fair price of $21.33 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Real Estate peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 44.7x, ROE of 2.9%, and dividend yield of 18.39%.
Is ARR a good buy right now?+
At $16.43, ARR trades 29.8% below our fair value estimate of $21.33. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at 2.9% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ARR pay dividends?+
ARR has a dividend yield of 18.39%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.