Ulta Beauty, Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$538.33
FAIR PRICE
$424.87
MARGIN
$113.46
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FPI RATING
High-quality fundamentals and consistent growth trajectory, but volatile earnings pattern.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$339.90
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
36.9%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $538.33, ULTA trades 36.9% above the conservative entry level of $339.90. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $424.87 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ULTA's fair price
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s fair price of $424.87 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $538.33, ULTA trades 21.1% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ULTA's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ULTA's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ULTA, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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What is the fair price of ULTA?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Ulta Beauty, Inc. is $424.87. At the current market price of $538.33, ULTA trades 21.1% above its calculated fair value.
Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued?+
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $538.33, which is 21.1% above the fair price of $424.87. The P/E ratio of 20.7x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for ULTA?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $424.87, the conservative entry level for ULTA is $339.90. At the current market price of $538.33, the stock trades 36.9% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ULTA's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ULTA daily after market close. The current fair price of $424.87 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ULTA's fair price calculation?+
ULTA's fair price of $424.87 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 20.7x, ROE of 44.1%.
Is ULTA a good buy right now?+
At $538.33, ULTA trades 21.1% above our fair value estimate of $424.87. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 44.1% (exceptional). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ULTA pay dividends?+
ULTA does not currently pay a dividend.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.