O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$89.49
FAIR PRICE
$62.21
MARGIN
$27.28
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FPI RATING
Stable earnings and revenue, but limited growth momentum and elevated debt levels.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$49.77
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
44.4%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $89.49, ORLY trades 44.4% above the conservative entry level of $49.77. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $62.21 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ORLY's fair price
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s fair price of $62.21 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $89.49, ORLY trades 30.5% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ORLY's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ORLY's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ORLY, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate ORLY's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of ORLY?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is $62.21. At the current market price of $89.49, ORLY trades 30.5% above its calculated fair value.
Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued?+
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $89.49, which is 30.5% above the fair price of $62.21. The P/E ratio of 29.2x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for ORLY?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $62.21, the conservative entry level for ORLY is $49.77. At the current market price of $89.49, the stock trades 44.4% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ORLY's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ORLY daily after market close. The current fair price of $62.21 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ORLY's fair price calculation?+
ORLY's fair price of $62.21 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 29.2x, ROE of -263.2%.
Is ORLY a good buy right now?+
At $89.49, ORLY trades 30.5% above our fair value estimate of $62.21. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at -263.2% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ORLY pay dividends?+
ORLY does not currently pay a dividend.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.