Market cooled a bit this week — now just under 8% above fair value

Here's the short version: the market still looks a little expensive, but a touch less so than last week. FPI puts stocks about 7% above what they're really worth right now — think of it as paying roughly seven bucks for something worth six-fifty. That's down from about 9% a week ago, a small step in the right direction. One thing to keep in mind: FPI is a long-term read on value, not a reaction to any single week's headlines — so don't expect it to jump around with the daily news.

Speaking of the news, it was a bumpy but ultimately winning week. All three major indexes finished higher, and the Dow snapped a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gained about half a percent and the Nasdaq climbed roughly 1%, with big tech doing most of the heavy lifting. The tug-of-war behind it all: crude oil finally moved meaningfully lower, easing some of the inflation fears that had dominated September, while Treasury yields stayed exceptionally high, consumer confidence weakened, and Presidents Trump and Xi wrapped up a closely watched summit that produced few major breakthroughs. The bond market kept flashing a warning too — the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.18%, around levels not seen since the global financial crisis. In plain terms: borrowing money got pricier, gas-pump pressure eased a little, and stocks shrugged and rose anyway.

Start at the expensive end. FPI's numbers say basic materials stocks are the frothiest right now — trading about 37% above what FPI thinks they're worth. Technology is close behind at roughly 30% too pricey, and industrials at about 22%. Tech's shine got brighter this week: information technology rose about 3%, the most of any of the S&P 500's sectors, helped along by Meta, which popped nearly 13% on the week amid excitement over its AI agent Muse. Fun to own on the way up — but a stock climbing while its fair value sits still is exactly how a gap this wide gets built.

Now the other end, worth a spot on your watchlist. Financial services is the standout bargain in FPI's eyes, trading about 30% below fair value. Utilities are around 19% cheap, and real estate about 7% under. Both of those tend to get punished when borrowing costs climb, and costs stayed high this week — the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007. That pressure is part of why they're on sale. Healthcare sits just barely under fair value too. None of this is a nudge to buy — it's a map of where value is showing up. If a name in these corners interests you, that's what setting a buy price in the app is for.

Enbridge was the week's biggest slider toward cheap. The pipeline giant is buying Blackstone's Pony Express crude line, and Enbridge is expanding its crude infrastructure through the Tallgrass transaction, supported in part by a planned C$2.6 billion equity raise. Selling new shares to pay for a deal can water down existing owners, and the stock cooled off — FPI's read flipped from looking about 27% pricey to roughly 31% below fair value, so it now screens as a bargain relative to what FPI thinks it's worth. On the flip side, First Solar swung hard the other way, from about 41% below fair value to roughly 47% above. That's odd given the stock had a rough stretch — shares of U.S. solar manufacturer First Solar are down 8% as elevated borrowing costs weigh heavily on solar stocks. Higher financing costs can make large utility-scale solar projects less attractive and potentially delay demand for First Solar modules. Even with that pressure, it now sits well above FPI's fair value line.

A few others made the leaderboard too — Franklin Resources and Traton both jumped from deeply cheap to clearly pricey, while Gen Digital and Disney's German listing slid the other way, toward a discount. Zoom out and the value pool stayed steady: 40 stocks dropped into undervalued territory this week, exactly matching the 40 that climbed out. If any of these names are on your radar, the FPI app is a good place to check where they sit versus fair value and to set a buy price you'd be comfortable with.

Investors added 20 new buy prices this week, bringing the total to 581 across 184 tickers. Most of the attention landed on the usual big names — Amazon, Netflix, and Nvidia each picked up two fresh targets, while Apple added one and now leads the pack with 38 investors watching. Accenture got its very first buy price, too. No new community buy zones opened up this week.

On the price side, the shifts were small and steady — nothing dramatic. The community nudged its typical Alphabet target down about 2%, with Apple, Meta, and Netflix barely moving at all, less than 1% each. In other words, folks are tweaking their entry points at the edges, not rushing. The actual numbers live in the app.

The calendar packs a punch. First up is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE report, landing at the end of the month. The personal consumption expenditures price index is due, and markets will watch it closely for signals about the Federal Reserve's next potential move. Why care? Steady inflation keeps rate-cut hopes alive, and cheaper money tends to lift what companies are worth. Then comes a wave of jobs data. JOLTS job openings take center stage on September 30, and the big monthly payrolls report caps things off soon after. A cooling job market pulls in two directions, so this one shapes how investors read the whole economy.

On the company side, memory-chip maker Micron reports. Investors will scrutinize its outlook and continue to assess the evolving landscape for AI-related investment themes. Earnings feed FPI's models directly and update fair values daily, so a strong or shaky read here can nudge how the whole chip corner looks. If AI names are on your watchlist, this is the one to keep an eye on.