Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$3.85
FAIR PRICE
$3.20
MARGIN
$0.65
P/E Ratio
N/A
Div. Yield
12.84%
ROE
-6.2%
Average
Market Cap
$2B
Mid-cap
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FPI RATING
Attractive valuation, but below-average fundamental quality and weak profitability margins.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$2.56
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
33.5%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $3.85, AMBP trades 33.5% above the conservative entry level of $2.56. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $3.20 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate AMBP's fair price
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s fair price of $3.20 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $3.85, AMBP trades 16.9% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting AMBP's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing AMBP's valuation multiples against Consumer Cyclical peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for AMBP, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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What is the fair price of AMBP?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is $3.20. At the current market price of $3.85, AMBP trades 16.9% above its calculated fair value.
Is AMBP overvalued or undervalued?+
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $3.85, which is 16.9% above the fair price of $3.20.
What is the margin of safety for AMBP?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $3.20, the conservative entry level for AMBP is $2.56. At the current market price of $3.85, the stock trades 33.5% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is AMBP's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for AMBP daily after market close. The current fair price of $3.20 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect AMBP's fair price calculation?+
AMBP's fair price of $3.20 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Cyclical peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight)., ROE of -6.2%, and dividend yield of 12.84%.
Is AMBP a good buy right now?+
At $3.85, AMBP trades 16.9% above our fair value estimate of $3.20. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at -6.2% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does AMBP pay dividends?+
AMBP has a dividend yield of 12.84%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.