ZTO Express
ZTO is undervalued
NYSE · Industrials
FAIR PRICE
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
$21.37
MARKET PRICE
$23.80
FAIR PRICE
$2.43
MARGIN
COMMUNITY BUY ZONE
UNLOCKS AT 10
Where does the market buy ZTO?
No one has priced ZTO yet — be the first. Every investor sets the maximum price they'd still buy at; together that maps the community buy zone.
COMMUNITY MEDIAN
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BUYERS AT TODAY'S PRICE
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0/10 INVESTORS · 10 MORE TO UNLOCK
METRICS
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FPI RATING
Low debt levels and stable earnings and revenue across the board.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$19.04
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
10.9%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $21.37, ZTO trades 10.9% above the conservative entry level of $19.04. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $23.80 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
SYNCING FEED ▌
P/E RATIO HISTORY
SYNCING FEED ▌
METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ZTO's fair price
ZTO Express's fair price of $23.80 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $21.37, ZTO trades 11.4% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ZTO's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ZTO's valuation multiples against Industrials peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ZTO, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate ZTO's fair value with your own inputs.
ZTO DCF Calculator
Pre-filled with ZTO's real free cash flow and share count — set your own growth and discount rate to calculate intrinsic value.
Graham Number
Enter ZTO's EPS and book value to see the maximum price Benjamin Graham would pay for this stock.
P/E Ratio Calculator
Check how much investors pay per dollar of ZTO's earnings and compare it against sector benchmarks.
EV/EBITDA Calculator
Compare ZTO against peers on a debt-adjusted basis using enterprise value and EBITDA.
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What is the fair price of ZTO?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for ZTO Express is $23.80. At the current market price of $21.37, ZTO trades 11.4% below its calculated fair value.
Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?+
ZTO Express is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $21.37, which is 11.4% below the fair price of $23.80. The P/E ratio of 12.4x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for ZTO?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $23.80, the conservative entry level for ZTO is $19.04. At the current market price of $21.37, the stock trades 10.9% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ZTO's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ZTO daily after market close. The current fair price of $23.80 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ZTO's fair price calculation?+
ZTO's fair price of $23.80 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 12.4x, ROE of 14.2%, and dividend yield of 3.23%.
Is ZTO a good buy right now?+
At $21.37, ZTO trades 11.4% below our fair value estimate of $23.80. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at 14.2% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ZTO pay dividends?+
ZTO has a dividend yield of 3.23%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.