ZTO Express
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$25.36
FAIR PRICE
$32.12
MARGIN
$6.76
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FPI RATING
Low debt levels and stable earnings and revenue, but expensive valuation relative to fundamentals.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$25.70
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
1.3%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $25.36, ZTO trades 1.3% below the conservative entry level of $25.70. The stock is currently priced below the 20% margin of safety threshold, indicating a potential value opportunity based on the model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ZTO's fair price
ZTO Express's fair price of $32.12 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $25.36, ZTO trades 26.7% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ZTO's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ZTO's valuation multiples against Industrials peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ZTO, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate ZTO's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of ZTO?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for ZTO Express is $32.12. At the current market price of $25.36, ZTO trades 26.7% below its calculated fair value.
Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?+
ZTO Express is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $25.36, which is 26.7% below the fair price of $32.12. The P/E ratio of 16.1x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for ZTO?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $32.12, the conservative entry level for ZTO is $25.70. At the current market price of $25.36, the stock trades 1.3% below this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ZTO's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ZTO daily after market close. The current fair price of $32.12 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ZTO's fair price calculation?+
ZTO's fair price of $32.12 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 16.1x, ROE of 14.2%, and dividend yield of 2.64%.
Is ZTO a good buy right now?+
At $25.36, ZTO trades 26.7% below our fair value estimate of $32.12. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at 14.2% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ZTO pay dividends?+
ZTO has a dividend yield of 2.64%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.