FAIR VALUE REPORT
TELADOC HEALTH, INC. · TDOC · NOV 02, 2026 · AFTER RESULTS OF OCT 28, 2026
Teladoc has $850 million in cash and a $1 billion bill due in June. Is $8.52 still cheap?
The stock jumped 27% on a quarter in which revenue fell. The model says $9.54, Wall Street's median target is $8.00, and most of the cash that makes the shares look cheap is already spoken for.
FPI VERDICT · NOV 02, 2026
DCF 50% · RELATIVE 30% · CONSENSUS 20%
12.0%
below fair value
UNCERTAINTY
VERY HIGH ±50%
FAIR VALUE BAND
$4.77 – $14.31
PRICE VS BAND
INSIDE THE BAND
Numbers as of publication. Today's fair value and price: TDOC stock page → · How uncertainty is rated →
5 MIN READ
THE REPORT IN 3 POINTS
- 01Teladoc's 27% jump on 29 October 2026 came from a $44 million advertising cut, as revenue fell 3% to $605.1 million.
- 02The company held $849.9 million in cash on 30 September 2026 against $1.0 billion of convertible notes due June 2027.
- 03FPI fair value is $9.54 versus an $8.52 price, while 42 analysts rate it hold with a median target of $8.00.
The 27% jump was bought with a $44 million advertising cut, not with growth
Teladoc Health ($TDOC) reported on 28 October 2026 that revenue for the quarter to September 2026 fell 3% to $605.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $79.4 million, above the $62-74 million range it had guided in July. The net loss narrowed to $26.9 million, or $0.15 per share, against the $0.22 loss analysts expected. The shares rose 26.9% on 29 October 2026.
The profit improvement has one source. Advertising and marketing spend dropped from $168.0 million to $124.0 million, a cut of $44.0 million - nearly twice the $23.9 million by which the operating loss improved. Without the cut, the loss would have widened.
The advertising went to BetterHelp, the cash-pay therapy business, and the revenue followed it out. BetterHelp revenue fell 13% to $206.6 million, with cash-pay customers down 25% to $174.5 million and paying users down 12% to 336,000. Insurance-covered revenue grew to $32.1 million from $3.7 million - real progress, but one dollar of insurance for every two lost in cash-pay. For the quarter to December 2026, the company guides BetterHelp revenue down 18.5-31.5% and total revenue to $569-615 million, which at the midpoint is below the quarter just reported.
| REPORTED | REVENUE | VS EST. | EPS | VS EST. | PRICE REACTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 28, 2026 | $605M | +2.9% | $-0.15 | +31.8% | +26.9% |
| JUL 29, 2026 | $607M | −1.4% | $-0.21 | +16.0% | −28.3% |
| APR 29, 2026 | $614M | +0.5% | $-0.36 | −5.9% | +1.8% |
| FEB 25, 2026 | $642M | +1.1% | $-0.14 | +26.3% | +15.1% |
| OCT 29, 2025 | $626M | −1.4% | $-0.21 | +19.2% | +6.2% |
| JUL 29, 2025 | $632M | +0.7% | $-0.19 | +29.6% | −1.7% |
| FEB 26, 2025 | $640M | +0.2% | $-0.28 | −33.3% | −15.0% |
| OCT 30, 2024 | $641M | 0.0% | $-0.19 | +34.5% | +0.9% |
Teladoc Health, Inc. beat the EPS estimate in 6 of the last 8 quarters. Price reaction is the move on the trading day after the results.
$850 million in cash, a $1 billion bill due in June 2027
The 10-Q for the quarter moves the $1.0 billion of 1.25% convertible notes due June 2027 into current liabilities for the first time, at a carrying value of $997.6 million and a market value of $968.8 million. Cash and equivalents stood at $849.9 million on 30 September 2026. Interest is still a net gain - $7.0 million of income against $4.9 million of expense in the quarter - because a 1.25% coupon from 2020 costs less than the cash earns.
That arrangement ends within eight months. On the 28 October 2026 call, management set out a two-phase plan: repurchase a substantial portion of the notes, potentially before the end of 2026, using cash plus traditional debt, then repay the remainder at maturity. The only reference for what traditional debt costs this company is its own $300 million revolver signed on 17 July 2025, priced at SOFR plus 2.75-3.25% - the margin alone is more than double the current coupon, before the base rate is added.
Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $135-165 million, after $85.4 million in the first nine months, down from $113.5 million in the same period of 2025. That covers about 15% of the principal. The rest comes from the cash pile and new borrowing, which is why the balance sheet after June 2027 will look nothing like the one investors bought on 29 October.
Fair value $9.54: a 15% cash yield and 0.6x sales against a -6.3% net margin
The FPI fair value is $9.54, which puts the $8.52 share price 12.0% below it. The inputs that lift a discounted cash flow and a peer comparison here are unusual: a free cash flow yield of 15.03% against an industry median of 3.01%, a price-to-sales multiple of 0.6x against a median of 3.6x, and guided adjusted EBITDA of $277-303 million for 2026. In plain terms, the market is paying 60 cents for each dollar of annual revenue; its peers fetch $3.60.
What holds the number down is everything below the gross margin line: a net margin of -6.3%, a return on invested capital of -6.2% and three-year revenue growth of 1.7% a year. The reported EV/EBITDA of 50.1x looks absurd next to the adjusted figures because the company writes off $88.3 million of acquired intangibles every quarter - $0.49 per share of non-cash charges. On the adjusted EBITDA guidance, an enterprise value of roughly $1.7 billion is a multiple of about six.
For a loss-making company a DCF is less stable than for a profitable one, since small changes in the assumed path to profit move the result a lot. The refinancing, not the fair value alone, decides whether the 15% cash yield belongs to shareholders or to lenders.
Over the 119 days to November 2, 2026 the share price went from $9.28 to $8.52 (−8.2%) and the FPI fair value from $10.19 to $9.54 (−6.4%). The gap moved from 9.8% below fair value to 12.0% below.
Street vs model: the $8.00 median target is already below the price
Forty-two analysts cover the stock: 15 buy, 27 hold, no sells - a consensus of hold. Price targets dated 6 October 2026 run from $7.50 to $11.00 with a median of $8.00 and a mean of $8.83. At $8.52 the shares trade 6.5% above the median and 3.5% below the mean. The FPI fair value of $9.54 sits 19% above the median.
Most targets predate the results. Jefferies set $8.00 and Evercore ISI $7.50 on 30 July 2026, when the stock was $6.72; Canaccord Genuity's $11.00 high dates from 21 July 2026. The first post-results change was Stifel on 29 October 2026: target raised to $6.50 from $5.50, rating still hold, $2.02 below the price.
The gap has a logic. The Street values the shares on 2027 free cash flow after interest on new debt and after BetterHelp's next leg down; a peer multiple on 0.6x sales and a trailing 15% cash yield gives more credit to the cash the company holds today. Both are looking at the same $849.9 million - one before it goes to bondholders, one after.
15 buy · 27 hold · 0 sell. FPI fair value sits inside the Street range, the share price is inside the range.
Three numbers before 24 February 2027: $38 million, $569 million and $6.47
For the stock to move toward the $9.54 fair value and the $9.89 52-week high, three things have to land. A notes repurchase announced before 31 December 2026 at or below the $968.8 million market value with limited new borrowing. BetterHelp insurance revenue in the quarter to December 2026 at the $38 million top of the $32-38 million range, on the way to the $200 million annual run rate targeted for the end of 2027 (from $140 million at the call). And Integrated Care margin above the 16.6% guided ceiling.
For the stock to fall back toward the 200-day average of $6.47: revenue at the $569 million bottom of the range, BetterHelp down the full 31.5%, or net interest turning negative once the new debt is drawn.
The signals to watch are simple. An RSI of 78 and a 54% gain in one month say the move is extended. Insiders sold 28 times in twelve months for $1.7 million, including the chief executive's 17,805 shares at $6.10 on 11 September 2026 - all below the current price. The next report is expected on 24 February 2027, with estimates of a $0.11 loss per share and revenue of $594.9 million; by then the company will have said what the June 2027 bill actually costs.
TOP OF THE FPI FAIR VALUE BAND
- 01A notes repurchase announced before 31 December 2026 at or below the $968.8 million market value, with limited new borrowing, would remove the June 2027 overhang.
- 02BetterHelp insurance revenue hitting the $38 million top of guidance for the quarter to December 2026 would support the $200 million run rate targeted for end-2027.
BOTTOM OF THE FPI FAIR VALUE BAND
- 01Fourth-quarter revenue at the $569 million bottom of guidance, with BetterHelp down the full 31.5%, would push the stock back toward the 200-day average of $6.47.
- 02Replacing the 1.25% convertible coupon with debt priced at SOFR plus 2.75-3.25% would flip the quarter's $7.0 million interest income into a net cost.
- 03The quarter's 14% EBITDA gain came from a $44.0 million advertising cut against only a $23.9 million operating loss improvement, with net margin still -6.3%.
FPI FAIR VALUE $9.54 · FPI fair value of $9.54 sits near the midpoint of the $4.77 to $14.31 band, slightly above the $8.52 price, and the deciding fact is how the $1.0 billion of notes due June 2027 is refinanced against $849.9 million of cash.
FPI fair value blends a discounted cash flow model (50%), relative valuation against sector peers (30%) and analyst consensus (20%), updated daily. How the model works →
TRACK THE NUMBER
Get notified when TDOC's fair value changes
Set your own buy price for TDOC and the app alerts you when the stock reaches it. iOS and Android.
MORE TDOC REPORTS
This is the first FPI fair value report on Teladoc Health, Inc.. The next one follows the company's next quarterly results.
MORE REPORTS IN HEALTHCARE
- NVO · Is Novo at $41 priced for the Wegovy pill or for the Wegovy price cut?NOV 10, 2026
- PFE · Pfizer pays 5.85% to wait out a patent cliff. Is $29 already paying for 2028?NOV 09, 2026
- ABBV · AbbVie's 2026 forecast rose 1%. The share price rose 29%. Which number is right?NOV 05, 2026
- MRK · A 19% earnings beat with 3% less profit: which Merck does $145 believe?NOV 04, 2026
Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
