Natural Grocers
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$29.18
FAIR PRICE
$21.82
MARGIN
$7.36
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FPI RATING
Attractive valuation and stable earnings and revenue, but limited growth momentum and elevated debt levels.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$17.46
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
40.2%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $29.18, NGVC trades 40.2% above the conservative entry level of $17.46. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $21.82 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate NGVC's fair price
Natural Grocers's fair price of $21.82 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Defensive peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $29.18, NGVC trades 25.2% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting NGVC's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing NGVC's valuation multiples against Consumer Defensive peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for NGVC, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate NGVC's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of NGVC?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Consumer Defensive peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Natural Grocers is $21.82. At the current market price of $29.18, NGVC trades 25.2% above its calculated fair value.
Is NGVC overvalued or undervalued?+
Natural Grocers is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $29.18, which is 25.2% above the fair price of $21.82. The P/E ratio of 13.9x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for NGVC?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $21.82, the conservative entry level for NGVC is $17.46. At the current market price of $29.18, the stock trades 40.2% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is NGVC's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for NGVC daily after market close. The current fair price of $21.82 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect NGVC's fair price calculation?+
NGVC's fair price of $21.82 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Consumer Defensive peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 13.9x, ROE of 23.5%, and dividend yield of 1.95%.
Is NGVC a good buy right now?+
At $29.18, NGVC trades 25.2% above our fair value estimate of $21.82. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 23.5% (strong). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does NGVC pay dividends?+
NGVC has a dividend yield of 1.95%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.