The market looks slightly pricey — about 9% above fair value, and easing a touch

Right now the market looks a little expensive. FPI puts it about 9% above fair value — slightly pricey, but not wildly so. And it eased a touch this week, slipping from about 9.7% to 8.9% above fair value. In plain terms: stocks got a little less stretched, though they're still trading above what FPI thinks the underlying businesses are worth. One thing to keep in mind — FPI's reading is a long-term valuation signal, not a scorecard for any single week's headlines.

So what actually happened? On the surface, a calm winning week: the S&P 500 advanced about 0.5% on the week, the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%, and the Dow climbed about 0.5% for its first winning week in three. Under the hood, though, it was a tug-of-war. Midweek, stocks rallied, led by an 8.7% jump in Nvidia after the chipmaker reported blowout earnings and forecast solid revenue growth. Then Friday cooled things off: stocks ended lower after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks emphasized that inflation remains uncomfortably high and that the central bank's commitment to price stability has not softened. Smaller companies felt it most — the Russell 2000 fell about 1.5% on the week, a reminder that the strength was concentrated at the top, not spread evenly across the market.

The priciest corner right now is basic materials — miners, chemicals, metals. FPI pegs the typical materials stock at about 36% above what it thinks it's worth, the steepest premium of any sector. Part of that is a real rally: gold has hit record highs in 2026 after soaring more than 45% over the past year, up around 14% in August alone. Technology sits second at roughly 29% over fair value, and this week showed why prices keep climbing — stocks rallied Thursday, led by an 8.7% jump in NVIDIA after the chip giant reported blowout earnings and forecast solid revenue growth. Industrials round out the expensive end at about 22% above fair value. When a whole sector trades that far above what FPI thinks it's worth, you're paying up for good news that's already happened.

Flip to the other end and financial services is where the value is hiding — the typical bank or insurer trades about 32% below FPI's fair value, by far the biggest discount on the board. Utilities are cheap too, around 13% under, and communication services sits a touch below fair value at about 4% off. That's a spot worth adding to your watchlist and setting a buy price in the app, so a pullback can do the work for you. One thing to keep in mind: Europe overall looks pricier than the US — the typical European stock runs about 15% over fair value versus roughly 9% stateside — so where a company is listed matters as much as what it does.

The two biggest swings this week both came after earnings — and both flipped from looking pricey to looking cheap in FPI's eyes. HealthEquity had the wildest ride: net income increased 10% to $65.6 million , and the company posted record HSA accounts of 10.7 million and record HSA Assets of nearly $38 billion , plus a raised full-year outlook. Yet the stock still tumbled — HealthEquity (HQY) is down -14.1% — and its gap to fair value went from about 75% above to roughly 69% below. Sometimes a good quarter isn't good enough when the price already ran ahead.

Synopsys told a similar story. The chip-design software maker beat and raised, posting quarterly GAAP earnings per diluted share (EPS) of $2.84, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.91, exceeding high-end of prior guidance as AI demand kept humming, with revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was $2.477 billion, compared to $1.740 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 — a jump of more than 40%. Even so, it swung from looking about 45% expensive to roughly 59% cheap versus fair value. Zoom out and the value hunting ground is getting busier: 74 stocks slipped into undervalued territory this week (more than 10% below fair value), while 38 climbed out. Worth a scan of your watchlist to see which names quietly got cheaper.

This week fellow investors added 25 new buy prices, bringing the total to 492 across 164 tickers. The attention landed squarely on big tech. Microsoft, Nvidia, Netflix, and Broadcom each picked up two fresh buy prices, and Apple added one. No new community buy zones opened up this week.

A few groups nudged their target prices, too. Realty Income (O) saw the biggest shift — its typical buy price dropped about 2%, meaning those 12 investors got a touch more patient. Apple and Nvidia eased down slightly as well, while Microsoft ticked up a hair. Small moves, but they show where people are quietly recalibrating. The exact prices live in the app.

The week kicks off quietly — U.S. markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, so the real action starts Tuesday. Markets are closed Monday, September 1 for the holiday, and on September 2 the ISM Manufacturing survey takes center stage. Think of that survey as a temperature check on factories: when it cools or heats up, the fair value of industrial and materials names can shift. Mid-week brings a look at hiring demand — the JOLTS job openings and the Fed's Beige Book land on September 3 — followed by private payrolls Thursday. Then the main event: the September 5 nonfarm payrolls report, with the unemployment rate right behind it. This is the big one, because the Fed's next interest-rate decision is set for September 16, and a hot or cold jobs number shapes what they do — which ripples into what companies are worth.

Earnings are thin this holiday-shortened week, so the calendar does most of the talking. Keep an eye on your watchlist: when fresh data moves the Fed's likely path, FPI's models fold that into fair values daily — no need for you to do the math. If jobs come in soft and rate-cut hopes grow, watch for value to appear in the rate-sensitive corners like real estate and smaller companies.