XPO Logistics
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$218.21
FAIR PRICE
$74.87
MARGIN
$143.34
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FPI RATING
Consistent growth trajectory, but elevated debt levels and weak profitability margins.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$59.90
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
72.6%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $218.21, XPO trades 72.6% above the conservative entry level of $59.90. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $74.87 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate XPO's fair price
XPO Logistics's fair price of $74.87 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $218.21, XPO trades 65.7% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting XPO's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing XPO's valuation multiples against Industrials peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for XPO, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
TRY IT YOURSELF
Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate XPO's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of XPO?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for XPO Logistics is $74.87. At the current market price of $218.21, XPO trades 65.7% above its calculated fair value.
Is XPO overvalued or undervalued?+
XPO Logistics is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $218.21, which is 65.7% above the fair price of $74.87. The P/E ratio of 84.1x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for XPO?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $74.87, the conservative entry level for XPO is $59.90. At the current market price of $218.21, the stock trades 72.6% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is XPO's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for XPO daily after market close. The current fair price of $74.87 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect XPO's fair price calculation?+
XPO's fair price of $74.87 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 84.1x, ROE of 17.8%.
Is XPO a good buy right now?+
At $218.21, XPO trades 65.7% above our fair value estimate of $74.87. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 17.8% (strong). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does XPO pay dividends?+
XPO does not currently pay a dividend.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.