Phillips 66
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$176.79
FAIR PRICE
$158.13
MARGIN
$18.66
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FPI RATING
Consistent growth trajectory, but volatile earnings pattern and expensive valuation relative to fundamentals.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$126.50
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
28.4%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $176.79, PSX trades 28.4% above the conservative entry level of $126.50. This entry level represents a 20% margin of safety below the calculated fair price of $158.13 — a buffer that accounts for estimation uncertainty in the valuation model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate PSX's fair price
Phillips 66's fair price of $158.13 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $176.79, PSX trades 10.6% above its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting PSX's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing PSX's valuation multiples against Energy peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for PSX, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate PSX's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of PSX?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Phillips 66 is $158.13. At the current market price of $176.79, PSX trades 10.6% above its calculated fair value.
Is PSX overvalued or undervalued?+
Phillips 66 is currently overvalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $176.79, which is 10.6% above the fair price of $158.13. The P/E ratio of 45.3x is a key metric in the valuation.
What is the margin of safety for PSX?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $158.13, the conservative entry level for PSX is $126.50. At the current market price of $176.79, the stock trades 28.4% above this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is PSX's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for PSX daily after market close. The current fair price of $158.13 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect PSX's fair price calculation?+
PSX's fair price of $158.13 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Energy peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight). Key metrics include P/E of 45.3x, ROE of 5.5%, and dividend yield of 3.72%.
Is PSX a good buy right now?+
At $176.79, PSX trades 10.6% above our fair value estimate of $158.13. The stock is currently overvalued. ROE stands at 5.5% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does PSX pay dividends?+
PSX has a dividend yield of 3.72%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.