Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$27.33
FAIR PRICE
$40.23
MARGIN
$12.90
P/E Ratio
N/A
Div. Yield
8.05%
ROE
-28.2%
Average
Market Cap
$3B
Mid-cap
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FPI RATING
Stable earnings and revenue, but weak profitability margins and below-average fundamental quality.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$32.18
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
17.8%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $27.33, NOG trades 17.8% below the conservative entry level of $32.18. The stock is currently priced below the 20% margin of safety threshold, indicating a potential value opportunity based on the model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate NOG's fair price
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s fair price of $40.23 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $27.33, NOG trades 47.2% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting NOG's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing NOG's valuation multiples against Energy peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for NOG, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate NOG's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of NOG?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Energy peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is $40.23. At the current market price of $27.33, NOG trades 47.2% below its calculated fair value.
Is NOG overvalued or undervalued?+
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $27.33, which is 47.2% below the fair price of $40.23.
What is the margin of safety for NOG?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $40.23, the conservative entry level for NOG is $32.18. At the current market price of $27.33, the stock trades 17.8% below this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is NOG's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for NOG daily after market close. The current fair price of $40.23 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect NOG's fair price calculation?+
NOG's fair price of $40.23 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Energy peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight)., ROE of -28.2%, and dividend yield of 8.05%.
Is NOG a good buy right now?+
At $27.33, NOG trades 47.2% below our fair value estimate of $40.23. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at -28.2% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does NOG pay dividends?+
NOG has a dividend yield of 8.05%.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.