Alaska Air
FAIR PRICE VALUATION
Updated daily
Model: DCF 50% · Relative 30% · Consensus 20%
MARKET PRICE
$38.99
FAIR PRICE
$58.79
MARGIN
$19.80
P/E Ratio
N/A
Div. Yield
N/A
ROE
-2.9%
Average
Market Cap
$5B
Mid-cap
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FPI RATING
Consistent growth trajectory, but volatile earnings pattern and weak profitability margins.
Analytical data, not an investment recommendation. Updated daily.
How we calculate this ↗MARGIN OF SAFETY
A 20% margin of safety below fair value — the conservative entry level for risk-aware investors.
SAFETY MARGIN
20%
Below fair value
ENTRY LEVEL
$47.03
Fair price × 0.80
DISTANCE
20.6%
Price to entry level
At the current price of $38.99, ALK trades 20.6% below the conservative entry level of $47.03. The stock is currently priced below the 20% margin of safety threshold, indicating a potential value opportunity based on the model.
Margin of safety is a risk management concept, not an investment recommendation. The 20% threshold follows Benjamin Graham's value investing framework. Fair price and entry levels are model-based estimates updated daily. Learn more about Margin of Safety ↗
VALUATION HISTORY
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P/E RATIO HISTORY
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METHODOLOGY
How we calculate ALK's fair price
Alaska Air's fair price of $58.79 is derived from a blended model that combines DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers using metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA (30%), and analyst consensus (20%). At the current market price of $38.99, ALK trades 50.8% below its calculated fair value.
DCF MODEL · 50%
Discounted free cash flow analysis based on projected cash flows, discounted at a rate reflecting ALK's risk profile.
RELATIVE · 30%
Comparing ALK's valuation multiples against Industrials peers to determine if the stock is over or undervalued relative to its industry.
ANALYST · 20%
Aggregated analyst price targets for ALK, weighted by recency and analyst accuracy.
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Want to test your own assumptions? Use our free calculators to estimate ALK's fair value with your own inputs.
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What is the fair price of ALK?+
Based on our blended model combining DCF analysis (50%), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30%), and analyst consensus (20%), the fair price for Alaska Air is $58.79. At the current market price of $38.99, ALK trades 50.8% below its calculated fair value.
Is ALK overvalued or undervalued?+
Alaska Air is currently undervalued based on our valuation model. The stock trades at $38.99, which is 50.8% below the fair price of $58.79.
What is the margin of safety for ALK?+
With a 20% margin of safety applied to the fair price of $58.79, the conservative entry level for ALK is $47.03. At the current market price of $38.99, the stock trades 20.6% below this entry level. Margin of safety is a risk management concept from Benjamin Graham's value investing framework, not an investment recommendation.
How often is ALK's fair price updated?+
We update fair price calculations for ALK daily after market close. The current fair price of $58.79 incorporates the latest market data and sector multiples.
What factors affect ALK's fair price calculation?+
ALK's fair price of $58.79 is derived from DCF analysis (50% weight), relative valuation against Industrials peers (30% weight), and analyst consensus (20% weight)., ROE of -2.9%.
Is ALK a good buy right now?+
At $38.99, ALK trades 50.8% below our fair value estimate of $58.79. The stock is currently undervalued. ROE stands at -2.9% (average). Fair Price Index provides valuation data — always do your own research before investing.
Does ALK pay dividends?+
ALK does not currently pay a dividend.
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Fair Price Index is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Fair value calculations are model-based estimates and may not reflect actual market conditions. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.